Inspired by discussions here earlier this week, I looked at the ridership projections for the various segments in planned ST3 expansion of light rail in Seattle.
While Sound Transit has organized the projects into two planning segments, Ballard Link Extension (BLE) and West Seattle Link Extension (WSLE), for my discussion here, I will break the Seattle expansions into 3 segments providing additional network coverage. I’ve left out the new downtown tunnel which shadows the current tunnel (except with a bad CID station), as all the lines require the extra capacity through downtown (though some have argued we can do without this section). I have used the numbers from the 2022 planning progress report (West Seattle, Ballard):
- Denny-Seattle Center: 37,100 daily boardings
- Smith Cove – Ballard: 19,900 daily boardings
- Delridge – Alaska Junction: 5,600 daily boardings as a stub, 13,400 daily boardings once the second downtown tunnel is open and it can replace the 1-Line in the current tunnel.
Based on these ridership numbers, the logical order they should be built in is 1-2-3.
Since 3 needs the new downtown tunnel capacity to reach its potential, and 1 is built in conjunction with the new downtown tunnel (same tunnel), there is no sense in building 3 before 1.
What has ST’s plan been? Build 3 as a underperforming stub, then 1, then 2. Now, with the budget shortfall, it’s looking like we are going to build 3, then 1, and 2 will get delayed indefinitely. At best this seems ill-conceived, at worst self-serving (given where King County Executive turned ST CEO lives).
submitted by /u/recurrenTopology
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